USD/TRY forecast ahead of Turkey GDP and inflation data

Turkey [https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/michael-jerrard-JnLp1kus3Ks-unsplash.jpg] The Turkish lira continued its strong plunge this month, reaching its all-time low. The USD/TRY exchange rate rose to 41.15, up by over 41% from its lowest level in January this year. IMPROVING THE TURKISH ECONOMY The USD/TRY exchange rate has surged this year, even as macro data showed that the country’s economy was doing relatively well. Inflation, which has been a major issue in the past few months, has made some improvement in the past few months. A recent report by the statistics agency showed the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 33.52% in July from 35% in June. While the 33.5% inflation rate is huge, it is notable for two main factors. First, it has been in a downward trajectory for 14 consecutive months after it peaked at over 70% in 2023. Second, the inflation plunge happened after the central bank slashed interest rates. It moved the benchmark interest rate to 43% in July, a 300 basis points cut. This cut means that the bank has erased the 350 basis point increase in April when…