Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory. From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million. Prediction market volumes (Dune) [https://cdn.sanity.io/images/s3y3vcno/production/27276212fe323dbcda985e288d7c8eb257bdce17-1120x662.jpg?auto=format] Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.” Polymarket's longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially. This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi's users are trading more often, while Polymarket's positions tend to sit. Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives…